Countries: Turkmenistan, Iran (Islamic Republic of) Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Please refer to the attached file. Scenario analysis When and where is the hazard expected to happen? Escalating tensions and worsening security, mobility, and socioeconomic conditions in Iran from late February to March 2026 increase the likelihood of sudden crossborder movements into Turkmenistan. Reports indicate intensifying hostilities, airspace and movement restrictions, service disruptions, and growing economic pressures, all heightening vulnerabilities. More than 290 third-country nationals (TCNs) have already entered Turkmenistan, and further arrivals remain possible. The National Society maintains close engagement with public authorities and humanitarian partners in the country. Current contingency planning and scenario analyses indicate a credible risk of increased population movements and highlight the need for strengthened preparedness. Furthermore, there are currently an estimate of 1-2M ethnic Turkmen present in Iran, some of whom maintain strong cultural, linguistic and family ties with Turkmenistan, which could lead some to seek return or temporary relocation should the situation deteriorate Estimated figures for the next 4–5 weeks indicate two possible scenarios: a low scenario of 1,000–3,000 people and a high scenario of 7,000–10,000 people. Movements are expected along established corridors shaped by the Kopet Dag mountains and existing transport infrastructure. The Ahal region is likely to receive flows through Serakhs–Sarakhs, Artyk–Lotfabad, and Gaudan–Bajgiran, while the Balkan region may see arrivals through Etrek / Gudri Olum–Incheh Borun. These crossing points have been activated during previous periods of tension and several are currently undergoing upgrades that could increase their capacity. A rapid influx could overwhelm border facilities, creating congestion, long waiting times, and shortages in WASH, shelter,