HIGH
Lebanon: Conflict Intensity, 2 March - 29 March 2026
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80
/100
HIGHThreat Assessment
The OCHA 'Lebanon: Conflict Intensity, 2 March - 29 March 2026' report documents a marked intensification of hostilities in Lebanon during March, with significant civilian casualties, mass displacement and sustained cross-border exchanges between Israel and Lebanese armed actors. This trend aligns with contemporaneous reports of Israeli strikes in Beirut, Hezbollah/rocket attacks into northern Israel, and UN peacekeeper fatalities, indicating a high risk of continued escalation and regional spillover.
Summary
Country: Lebanon
Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Please refer to the attached file.
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Identified Entities
Countries & Regions
LebanonIsraelHezbollahUnited Nations (OCHA / UNIFIL / UNICEF / UNHCR)Civilians / displaced populations
Weapons & Military
airstrikesrocketsmissilescluster missilesanti-tank guided missilesdrones
Threat Indicators
military action
nuclear threat
cyber warfare
terrorism
Key Phrases
"High civilian casualty and displacement figures (large-scale humanitarian crisis undermining stability and increasing pressure on neighboring states).""Sustained cross-border kinetic exchanges (Israeli strikes in Beirut and Hezbollah/rocket attacks) increase the likelihood of further tit-for-tat escalation.""Deaths of UN peacekeepers and targeted hits on militant figures degrade deconfliction mechanisms and raise the risk of miscalculation.""Concentration of violence in populated areas and critical infrastructure amplifies humanitarian and political consequences, inviting greater international diplomatic and potentially military involvement."