CRITICAL
Global Terrorism Index 2026: Special Supplement - The Iran War and the Global Terrorism Threat
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CRITICALThreat Assessment
The report documents major, recent escalatory events in the Iran conflict—most notably the February 28, 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attributed to a US–Israeli operation—and details sustained Iranian retaliation (missile strikes, closure of the Strait of Hormuz), mobilisation of proxy forces across the Gulf and Levant, and growing maritime and cyber asymmetric warfare. This represents a systemic regional collapse toward wide-ranging kinetic, maritime, cyber and terrorist campaigns with direct global economic and security consequences.
Summary
Countries: Iran (Islamic Republic of), World
Source: Institute for Economics and Peace
Please refer to the attached file.
Introduction
This paper assesses the current state of the Iran conflict, especially through the lens of terrorism, its impact on Iranian proxy organisations, the escalating threat of civil war in Iran, the potential for destabilisation in Iraq and the Levant, maritime and cyber dimensions of asymmetric warfare, the broader implications for Middle Eastern and global security, and the impact on terrorism in Western nations. The analysis draws on official government threat products, intelligence assessments, and open-source reporting current as of March 16th, 2026.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a joint US–Israeli military operation on February 28th, 2026 has thrown the Middle East into chaos, increasing the risk of future terrorist activity both in the region and overseas while negatively impacting the global economy. His son Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected as his replacement; however, both the US and Israel have threatened to assassinate him. Operation Epic Fury (United States) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) represent the culmination of a 23-month escalation cycle that began after direct strikes by Israel that killed eight senior members of the IRGC. Iran retaliated with the first direct missile attack on Israel in April 2024. Conflict intensified through the June 2025 Twelve-Day War and now encompasses the entire Persian Gulf.
Iran’s recent retaliatory strikes against US bases and civilian infrastructure across six Gulf states, its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the mobilisation of proxy networks from Iraq to Yemen signal a regime fighting for survival, one that has historically turned to terrorism as a tool of asymmetric warfare. Early indicators suggest the IRGC intends to sustain a prolonged campaign, leveraging global economic disruption as strategic pressure on the United States. This will likely be accompa
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Identified Entities
Countries & Regions
Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran)Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)Mojtaba KhameneiUnited StatesIsraelProxy groups (Iraq, Yemen, Hezbollah and other Iran-linked militias)Gulf states (unnamed - six Gulf states referenced)Institute for Economics and Peace
Weapons & Military
missiles (ballistic/ballistic-style strikes)drones (implied by asymmetric/maritime strikes)naval/maritime blockade (closure of the Strait of Hormuz)cyber weapons/spywarespecial operations/targeted assassinationterrorist attacks/insurgent tactics
Threat Indicators
military action
nuclear threat
cyber warfare
terrorism
Key Phrases
"Assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader is a strategic shock that markedly increases incentives for existential retaliation and prolonged conflict.""Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on US bases and Gulf infrastructure pose immediate global economic and maritime security risks.""Mobilisation and activation of Iran-linked proxy networks across Iraq, Yemen and the Levant expand the conflict into multi-front asymmetric campaigns.""Cyber and maritime dimensions increase opportunities for deniable attacks, economic disruption, and transnational terrorism affecting Western states.""Sustained IRGC-led campaign coupled with US–Israeli direct action raises probability of further escalation and broader regional war."